The May report is mostly bad news. The jump in energy and food prices were expected, nonetheless it will hit consumers hard. It seems likely that the rise in interest rates and slower growth will reverse price increases in more areas soon, notably cars, but it has not happened yet. Soaring energy and food prices, largely due to the Ukraine war, will continue to be huge problems. A cease fire could make a big difference.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, Ukrainian officials are increasingly worried the West could soon suffer “war fatigue.”
They fear Russia could take advantage of that to pressure Ukraine into compromise, something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has resisted, saying Ukraine would pursue its own terms for peace.
Moscow grossly underestimated the economic costs of launching its war in Ukraine. Lulled by the limited sanctions that greeted its invasions of Crimea and Donbas in 2014, and a false sense of security provided by its hundreds of billions of dollars in reserves, President Vladimir Putin appears to have believed that he could ride out any sanctions that a divided West could muster. He seems not to have understood the shock wave that a full invasion of a European state would produce in the West and the massive unity of the European Union’s economic response. He did not anticipate Germany’s about-face in its relations with Russia or the sudden attractiveness of NATO membership to Finland and Sweden. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to be a catastrophic blunder by Putin, one that puts Russia and his regime in great peril.
Much has been said about Ukraine’s lethal set of western-donated anti-armor and anti-tank weapons that have been helping them take out Russian tanks left and right since the start of the war. However, there is another anti-tank weapon that the Ukrainian forces have used to bust Russian tanks up to smithereens, the German DM22 PARM2 mine.
Amidst their own NATO membership application, Sweden has announced that they will be arming Ukraine once more with Robot 17 anti-ship missile systems in another move that is evidence of their shift from a neutral country to leaning more towards the West. More so, the Ukrainians will be obtaining more from Sweden as part of the country’s new $102 million military and economic support package.
The West Needs a Policy to Manage a War That Will Go On
With Russia’s war against Ukraine having passed the 100-day mark, calls for the conflict to be brought to an end are multiplying in the United States and Europe. Italy has put forward a detailed peace plan, French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the importance of giving Russia an off-ramp, and former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has suggested that Ukraine ought to consider ceding territory to Russia in exchange for peace.
The bottom line
While the transfer of US high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) and British multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) will help Ukraine, we assess that the amount of systems and ammunition planned for transfer in the first tranche will only have a minor impact in the fighting.
Recently, Russia appears to have started increasing its economic activity in Syria, which has followed Iran’s exploitation of the Russian preoccupation with invasions of Ukrainian territory. In this context, Iran was presented with an opportunity to increase its economic influence in Syria.
Enab Baladi says Russia exaggerates the number of soldiers it keeps in Syria.
Speculation has swept over the past few weeks about the number of Russian soldiers present in Syria, in light of reports that Russia has reduced that number, according to what was reported by Russian media that does not reflect the official vision in Moscow.
When Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits his Turkish counterpart, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, in Ankara this week, Turkey’s proposal to establish a safe transport corridor for Ukrainian grain exports will be a top agenda item. If realized, the Black Sea corridor would require a naval escort, mine-clearing, and inspections to ensure that grain ships do not transport weapons—delicate tasks that necessitate a Turkish role because of the country’s geography. There is plenty at stake: The United Nations and economists are warning that continued blockage of Ukrainian grain exports could lead to famine and instability in Africa and privation elsewhere. Meanwhile, Ukraine has accused Russia of looting its grain.